February 11, 2008
REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES IN THE U.S.A..................................
About some days ago, I made this comment on the MSN Conservative Allies' on-line forum:
SENT: 1/31/2008 8:44 AM ----- MSN CONSERVATIVE ALLIES' FORUM
Mitt Romney, the Mormon presidentiable, was recently beaten at the Florida primary.
LIZ SIDOTI, an Associated Press Writer, puts it this way:
'John McCain solidified his status as the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination with a Florida triumph, his candidacy coming full circle in little more than a year. "It shows one thing. I'm the conservative leader who can unite the party," the Arizona senator said in a brief interview with The Associated Press.
Later, he told elated supporters: "We have a ways to go, but we are getting close."
McCain heads into next week's 20-plus contests, including mega-delegate states California and New York, with significant momentum after two straight wins and leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the delegate count.Certain to provide another boost, McCain is set to get the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday in California, according to GOP officials who spoke on condition of anonymity in advance of the public announcement. The former New York mayor is preparing to quit the race.
By summer, the campaign had blown through nearly all of the $25 million it had raised, and McCain had accepted the resignations of two top aides and promoted a third to manage what was left of the campaign. Money troubles meant dozens of layoffs while loyalty to the departed aides prompted others to flee.
McCain laid low in August, working to stabilize his campaign's finances and seeking to map out a road ahead with a narrower strategy. He hoped he could still emerge as the last man standing if the GOP field remained fractured.
He looked to Florida to cement his returned status — and Florida delivered.'
Full Story is from this page: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080130/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_ap_interview .
It was reported that Giuliani will now support John McCain's quest for victory in the primaries, beginning there in California. Such an event would really bolster McCain's bid to win the official presidential nomination of the Republican Party. McCain is predicted by American political analysts to win the California primary. There is no doubt that McCain is popular to both conservative and liberal actors from Hollywood. Even Jon Stewart, a liberal Hollywood celebrity, likes him. With Giuliani's support and a strong Hollywood-based sympathy from certain well-known peeps, McCain can easily clinch a victory in the California primary. If McCain wins in California, he could also win in New York. Winning such primaries would definitely give McCain a psychological victory that could finish the on-going campaign of Mr. Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries.
As I've said before, many Republican and pro-Republican community leaders see Mitt Romney's Mormonism as a hindrance for him to win the official Republican nomination for the presidency. While McCain is pictured as a good mainstream Protestant Chrisitian with lots of leadership-experiences, Romney is being seen as a half-hearted conservative (for his well-known pro-choice and moderately pro-gay stands) with strong connections from the Mormon church. Many conservatives in the U.S. seem to be not-yet-ready for a Mormon to be a standard-bearer of the Republican Party. The politics in the state of Utah also gives the impression that a would-be Mormon president would just act as a puppet-leader of Mormon bishops. Such a view has some basis due to the obvious realities about Utah politics and state-administration.
For now, I would say that John McCain has the advantage and edge in winning the Republican primaries as against that of Romney. I would say that McCain has a 55-percent probability of winning the Republican primaries. Many conservative community leaders in the Southern United States have already signified their intention of not backing up Romney. Romney's Mormonism is not something being cheered about by many conservative leaders in the Southern USA. With that, I would have to say that McCain has now the strongest chance of winning the Republican primaries.
...................................From Sergio Moran
Sergio Moran is the usual username that I use when I post messages to MSN forums. I made such forecast way back in Jan. 31, 2008. Some predictions on such a forecast did come true. I sort of used my intution when I made such a forecast about McCain's bid to win the official Republican nomination for the US presidency. McCain now is the presumed nominee of the Republicans for the US presidency. I can say that a human person who has really studied hard the social sciences can make some accurate predictions about would-be socio-political events in the world. Intuitive forecasting is really just about guessing , using the mathematical, scientific and good spiritual methods of objectivity, some predictable would-be occurences in this world that can be properly analyzed in one's own physical mind. Later on, I've also made these comments on the same on_line forum and on the same thread:
SENT: 2/1/2008 10:24 AM
If Romney gets beaten in the California primary, I think such would be the time for Romney to really think hard of backing-off from the presidential race.....
If Romney gets defeated in the California primary, he can very well halt his bid in the Republican primaries. The current problem of lack of financial funding for Romney to go on with his campaign for the primaries is lingering now over Romney's political team. So, Romney getting defeated in the California primary may mean Romney getting ready to quit from his presidential bid. But he can try again for his presidential bid next time around. Maybe then the American conservatives would be ready to cheer for a Mormon presidentiable. But for now the American Democrats may say to Romney this line: "Better luck next time to your presidential bid."
Romney did quit from the race for the Republican primaries. So, it is safe to say that intuitive forecasting, as long as it is based on mathematical, scientific and good-spiritual analyses, can give some accurate but limited predictions about certain future events in the future. But, still, intuitive forecasting is limited in strength and scope and is sometimes a failure. It is
because of the fact that every human being (and every other living creature, also) in this world is actually free to choose the pathways of her or his own life's destiny. Now that Romney has already quit from the primaries, he can still run again for the presidency next time around. Romney can still be an effective agent of change within the Republican Party, and can inspire American conservatives to completely disregard one person's religious affiliation as a qualification for becoming the US conservatives' standard-bearer. Some things have to change for betterment and progress of the human race.